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This group garners the most hype for MVP awards on an annual basis, and it's understandable why. It's more fun to project a breakthrough than it is to peg a perennial candidate such as Brady for the trophy, and the history of voter fatigue with former winners suggest that these newcomers can win if there's a sudden leap in their level of play. Over the past three years, we've seen Wentz nearly win the award before tearing his ACL in 2017, Mahomes win in his first year as a starter in 2018 and Jackson win in his first full season as a starter in 2019. It's no surprise that one of the trendiest candidates this year fits this group, though he isn't my favorite choice.
My favorite from this group: Watson. Although Watson will likely graduate to another section by signing an extension before the season begins, the Houston star has the sort of upside I'm looking for in an MVP candidate. The Texans traded away his star receiver when they sent DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, but Watson's offense is still deep at receiver and should be better along the offensive line now that left tackle Laremy Tunsil will have a full year in this scheme. The Texans also have continuity in their offensive coaching staff and are contenders in a wide-open AFC South.
The obvious candidate I'm passing up here is Murray, who doesn't have some of the benefits I pointed out above. He has coaching continuity and added a critical weapon in Hopkins, but the Cardinals has a below-average offensive line with a history of injury issues across the board. I love Murray as a player and think he could take a big leap forward, but the MVP usually has to win his division and lead his team to one of the best records in football, and the Cardinals had a difficult task in the NFC West. With slightly longer odds, I prefer Watson.
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